Exploring Arsenic danger awareness in the Polish Copper Basin – simulation of engagement in online networking

Abstract

Aim. In cases of environmental danger, the information spread plays an important role in risk

management. We have considered recent arsenic environmental danger in Głogów and Legnica (Copper/Cuprum Basin) according to the available data (2015-2017) from social network analysis and agent-based modelling point of view.

 Thesis. In case of danger of unknown consequences, there are at least 2 different strategies of

information management:

1) information spread that leads to awareness of the whole society;

2) keeping the whole information in secret under control that leads to a partial social awareness, available to a small number of people only.

 Methods. In our model, the probability of information spread between two nodes is inverse

proportion to connectivity of the susceptible node because people who have a lot of connections are more immune. We have applied theoretical agent-based modelling on Barabasi-Albert networks to explore various scenarios of information spread in Social Media. We have investigated the function of hubs within that concept.

 Results. We have considered various levels of environmental danger and draw possible projections for the  future. Oscillations according to temporal socio-political conditions as well as increase in attention in 2018 have been revealed.

 Conclusions. Despite blocking of information by hubs, the successful information spread is possible when levels of danger are high enough. The perception and impression of information spread by society is also discussed.